I wrote last time that my friend and CW Practice mate has been substituting SSNe from Space Weather here versus using the published and more traditional SSN, as recorded on most world wide solar prediction sites and found on my blog in the right hand column. This produces a more conservative propagation prediction if one is using a propagation program such as VOACAP or ICEPAC or virtually any propagation prediction program I have come into contact with here. One reason may be due to the solar numbers changing by observation very quickly while the ionosphere changes a lot slower. Or at least it seems to based on the following data and models from Space Weather. As I post this the Solar Flux Index is 75 and the SSN is 43. One would expect great propagation compared to the last several weeks. However if you look at SSNe as shown by Space Weather, expectations wane a bit. Recall that SSNe is modeled from actual live data produced by Ionosondes (Ionospheric sounders) collecting actual data in near real time. So now you are in a position to compare observed data which heightens expectations (SFI 75 and SSN 43) versus SSNe (BTW this plot updates often at approximately 1 hour intervals) shown below in two plots/charts.
Notice SSNe has begun to twist upward but has not shown the magnitude of what looking at SSN shows. Actual vs. predicted showing there is some hysteresis in the process. The Space Weather table is reproduced below. All of this information is available at Space Weather site linked earlier.
And with that I conclude for today except to say GO USA Beat ENGLAND!
Thanks for reading my Blog. Best, Chas W5PG